DATA-DRIVEN SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE MODELING THROUGH STOCHASTIC SIMULATION AND SUSTAINABLE RESOURCE ALLOCATION ANALYTICS

Abstract

This study investigates how data-driven capabilities and sustainable resource-allocation policies jointly influence supply chain resilience (SCRes) under disruption and uncertainty. Adopting a quantitative, cross-sectional, multiple case-study design, the research integrates survey-based measurement, archival operational data, and stochastic simulation–optimization to link organizational capabilities—visibility, collaboration, flexibility, supplier diversification, redundancy, risk orientation, and allocation efficiency—to key resilience outcomes, including service recovery, time-to-recovery (TTR), backorder intensity, cost variance, and emissions. Data were collected from 190 professionals across four international firms in discrete manufacturing, FMCG, healthcare logistics, and electronics sectors, each providing both perceptual and objective data spanning 12–24 months of operations. Hierarchical multiple regression models, supported by mediation and moderation analyses, revealed that collaboration, digital visibility, and allocation efficiency were the strongest predictors of resilience performance, while flexibility and diversification contributed moderate incremental effects. Allocation efficiency partially mediated the impact of visibility and collaboration on outcomes, demonstrating that information and coordination enhance resilience primarily through improved resource allocation. Moreover, capability effects intensified under uncertainty—visibility’s and collaboration’s benefits were significantly amplified by demand volatility and lead-time variability. A composite Resilience Performance Index (RPI) was developed to align statistical and operational metrics, linking survey constructs to observed KPIs. Monte Carlo simulation experiments using empirically calibrated disruption parameters validated these statistical insights: sustainability-aware optimized policies improved mean service levels by 3–6 percentage points, reduced TTR by 15–27%, lowered backorder intensity by up to 24%, and cut emissions intensity by 6–11% compared to status quo. These findings confirm that resilience and sustainability can be jointly enhanced through data-driven allocation strategies. The study contributes an integrated, replicable framework that bridges measurement, inference, and decision experimentation—offering both theoretical clarity on capability mechanisms and practical guidance for managers seeking to design resilient, carbon-conscious supply chains under stochastic conditions.